FTSE 100 rises with handbrake on after Iran-Israel ceasefire hits oil, gold and defence

• FTSE 100 rises 20 points to 8,778
• Oil prices plunge 12% after Israel-Iran ceasefire
• Gold price, US dollar and bond yields also retreat  

4.17pm: FTSE handbrake on

The FTSE 100 sprinted out of the blocks this morning but looking at the chart suggests that enthusiasm has been ebbing away ever since.  

Topping the risers is now JD Sports, up 7%, above the matching 6.4% gains for airlines easyJet and IAG.

Barclays, HSBC, NatWest and Lloyds are all up between 2% and 5%, while several other financials are in the mix.

Keeping the index from bigger gains, oil giants BP and Shell are down 4.8% and 3.5% after oil prices fell around 12% over the past 24 hours following the Israel-Iran ceasefire. 

Defence contractors BA Systems and Babcock are down 4.3% and 1.8%, while miners are also lower, with gold miner Endeavour the biggest faller, down 5.6%, while Glencore and Fresnillo are also down either side of 3%.  

There were comments from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and chief economist Huw Pill for investors to mull over.

Bailey stated that the labour market in Britain is beginning to weaken, though wage increases "remain significantly above the level aligned with the target".

Markets are anticipating a probable decrease in borrowing costs by approximately 50 basis points by the year's end, said market analyst Patrick Munnelly at Tickmill.

Defence sector names were not helped by Prime Minister Keir Starmer committing to increasing defence and security expenditures to 5% of economic output by 2035, as part of a NATO members' agreement made in The Hague, though the defence and aerospace sector index has risen by 55.5% this year, positioning it as one of the best-performing sectors in the FTSE.

3.51pm: Pound and euro up vs USD

The pound has risen 0.8% versus the US dollar to $1.3629 and the euro is up 0.4% at $1.161, earlier hitting $1.64 amidst Fed chief Jerome Powell's testimony to Congress. 

Powell said he expects policymakers to refrain from interest rate cuts until they have a better idea about the impact tariffs will have on prices.

While Donald Trump has been vociferously calling for rate cuts and some of Powell's colleages on the FOMC have recently said that inflation is showing encouraging enough indications to warrant a cut soon, Powell is not for turning yet.   

"Near-term measures of inflation expectations have moved up over recent months, as reflected in both market- and survey-based measures. Respondents to surveys of consumers, businesses, and professional forecasters point to tariffs as the driving factor," he said in prepared testimony for his appearance before two congressional committees this week.  

"Beyond the next year or so, however, most measures of longer-term expectations remain consistent with our 2% inflation goal."

He added: "Policy changes continue to evolve, and their effects on the economy remain uncertain. The effects of tariffs will depend, among other things, on their ultimate level."   

2.48pm: US stocks rally further

Wall Street stocks have opened higher, led by the giants of the tech sector, sending the Nasdaq Composite index surging 1.15%.

The S&P 500 and Dow Jones have gained 0.8% in initial trading.

Amazon shares are up 2.3%, with Alphabet and Meta Platforms also around 2%, though semiconductor groups are topping the Nasdaq leaderboard, with AMD and Broadcom rising almost 4%, with Nvidia up 1.5%.

Palantir is down 0.7%, while defence firms Northrop Grumman and L3Harris and Lockheed Martin are also in the red, down between 1% and 3%.

2.25pm: Carnival celebration

London- and New York-listed Carnival is up 9% after the cruise operator said it exceeded its financial targets 18 months early, with adjusted return on invested capital and adjusted EBITDA per available lower berth day reaching the highest levels in nearly two decades.

Second quarter net income improved by nearly $475 million and adjusted net income more than tripled compared to 2024, outperforming March guidance by $185 million.

It hailed all-time high customer deposits of $8.5 billion.

1.48pm: US futures firmly in green

US futures are pointing higher, led by the tech-powered Nasdaq, up 1%.

Futures for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones are both up around 0.7%.   

Shares in Exxon Mobil and Chevron are down 1.7% and 1.4% respectively in premarket trading, slighter echoes of larger falls in Europe. 

Similarly, defence companies Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman were down 1.4% and 0.8%.

1.05pm: Worst of the industrial slowdown over?

The CBI’s industrial trends survey points to manufacturing activity falling in June, "but the worst of the slowdown looks at an end", says Elliott economist Jordan-Doak at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

This is despite the total orders balance collapsing on a seasonally-adjusted basis in June to a 58-month low, and the three-month average of the unadjusted orders balance dropped to a joint-four-month low.

"The CBI’s Industrial Trends survey’s balances are particularly erratic indicators of manufacturing activity and expectations, so we always treat them with a high degree of caution," he adds.

Yesterday's flash manufacturing PMI for June, for instance, showed manufacturing output recovering, even if that survey still pointed to output falling.

"We think the seasonally adjusted fall in the CBI’s headline balance looks erratic in the context of the PMI, and also given that policy uncertainty-- which had weighed heavily on activity in recent months -- held relatively stable in June.

"But the bigger picture is that manufacturing activity remains weak, and we think the three-month average of the seasonally adjusted total orders balance, -33, paints a generally accurate picture of subdued activity in the manufacturing sector, which we expect to continue for some time." 

12.30pm: Oil little moved as Trump says ceasefire remains 'in effect'

Explosions have been reported north of Tehran, after Israel vowed to respond to what it said was a violation of the ceasefire by Iran.

However, news agency reports suggested that this was only a "symbolic" strike. 

US President Donald Trump posted earlier that Israel must "not drop those bombs. If you do it is a major violation. Bring your pilots home."

He has just posted that planes "will turn around and head home, while doing a friendly 'plane wave' to Iran. Nobody will be hurt, the Ceasefire is in effect!"

Oil prices, gold and bonds have been little moved, after a slight spike earlier.

The FTSE 100 is up 0.3%, as gains for travel stocks are offset for falls for oil and defence companies. Across the Channel, the French CAC 40 is up 1.1%, while the German DAX has gained 1.7%.   

11.52am: CBI factory orders down

UK factory orders have fallen back to where they were at the start of the year, according to the CBI’s latest Industrial Trends report.

Total order books and export order books were reported as below "normal" for June, with both balances broadly unchanged from last month and below their respective long-run averages

The total orders balance fell to -33 in June, from -30 in May, below the consensus forecast of -24. Economists noted that the survey's orders balance is not seasonally-adjusted and usually rises in June.

"Manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. The decline was widespread with output falling in 14 out of 17 sub-sectors," the report said. 

"Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the three months to September. Total and export order books remained weak in June, with both balances broadly unchanged from last month and below their respective long-run averages.".

The latest CBI Industrial Trends Survey found that manufacturing output volumes fell in the three months to June, at a similarly steep pace to the three months to May. Looking ahead, firms anticipate that the pace of decline will slow over the next three months pic.twitter.com/xRCYumR8UJ

— CBI Economics (@CBI_Economics) June 24, 2025

11.40am: Bitcoin treasury trend continues

Investors solely interested in large-cap companies might not have noticed the recent bitcoin treasury trend among Aquis companies that has also come to AIM and the London main market.

Just over a dozen companies have pivoted to this strategy, where a cryptocurrency, usually bitcoin, is bought and held as a balance sheet asset. 

It echoes a trend seen among US tech firms started by MicroStrategy, which has since rebranded to just Strategy, and Tesla, which owns just over 11,500 bitcoins, worth around $1.2 billion. Mara Holdings, Riot Platforms and CleanSpark are other big crypto holders. 

AIM-listed Sundae Bar Plc (AIM:SBAR), which floated on the junior market three weeks ago as an AI agent marketplace, jumped 24% today after it announced it had introduced a bitcoin treasury policy and launched a retail share offer to raise about £500,000.

Shares in fully listed Vinanz Ltd (LSE:BTC, OTCQB:VINZF), where serial entrepreneur David Lenigas is executive chair, jumped as much as 35% in early trading today after it announced a fresh $3.85 million bitcoin purchase, taking its total holdings to 58.68. The transaction used most of the proceeds from its recent £3.6 million WRAP retail offer, which followed adoption of the new stragtegy alongside its bitcoin mining operations. 

Yesterday, Panther Metals PLC (LSE:PALM) joined the growing number of smaller companies experimenting with cryptocurrency as a financial tool, sending its shares surging 22% after the explorer unveiled a plan to finance a key mining asset by establishing a bitcoin treasury, with Aquis-listed Mendell Helium told investors it is putting in place a treasury management policy to accumulate and hold bitcoin alongside potential crypto mining initiatives, while continuing with its previous main focus of developing a helium project.

Last week, Aquis-listed The Smarter Web Company (AQSE:SWC) soared 25% to continue an impressive rally since its April debut, as it raised an additional £29.3 million from investors -- the fifth capital raise since its April IPO to give it a market cap of roughly £430 million. 

Pri0r1ty Intelligence Group PLC (LSE:PR1) also climbed as it confirmed it had formally adopted the treasury strategy as a financing tool. 

11.06am: Markets pretty calm

Oil and gold prices, and bond yields had all spiked on the news of a possible break of the ceasefire earlier. 

But yields are back down and oil prices are flattening off.

Iran’s ISNA news agency says reports that Iran fired missiles at Israel after the ceasefire took effect were false.

The Israel Defence Force said two missiles were fired after the start of the ceasefire, setting off sirens in the north of the country.

Residents reported interceptions by the 'Iron Dome' defence system, the Times of Israel reported.  

10.29am: Undermining the ceasefire

Oil and gold prices bounced back a little after Israel said Iran has violated the ceasefire agreement and vowed retaliation. 

The Israel Defence Force chief of staff said that "in light of the grave violation of the ceasefire by the Iranian regime, we will strike with force".

Iran launched two ballistic missiles at Israel shortly after a ceasefire with Tehran was announced.

Iran has denied it fired any missiles towards Israel in recent hours. 

Earlier, the country's top security body, the Supreme National Security Council, said Iran's armed forces "have no trust in the words of its enemies and will keep finger on trigger to respond to any further act of aggression", per the Fars news agency. 

Brent crude hit a low of $67.2, then bounced back up to almost $70 in the past hour and a half.  

9.57am: What will the market focus on next?

"Trump has flipped a switch, and the market is responding," says market analyst Kathleen Brooks, although she notes that "risk sentiment is sensitive to headline risk".  

The rapid oil price decline was "a sign that the market is taking this agreement as a done deal", but she adds that "if there are more signs that the ceasefire is not holding, we could see the oil price resume its uptrend".

The speed of the oil price decline "makes it hard to predict just how far it will fall, the market tends to overshoot itself", Brooks adds, with Brent front-month futures slicing through its 200-day and 100-day moving averages before bouncing just above $67 a barrel and now above $69.

Brooks suggests Brent could "find decent support" at $66.6, its 50-day moving average, and the lowest level since before Israel launched air strikes at Iran earlier this month.

The question now, says Brooks, is what will the market focus on next?

"With geopolitical risks expected to moderate from here, the focus could shift to Q2 earnings season that will start in a few weeks, and US trade tariffs. If we assume that tariffs will be sewn up in the coming weeks, then the focus could shift to the AI trade and a cruisy summer for volatility."

The ceasefire could also "signal weakness ahead" for defence stocks, with BAE Systems PLC (LSE:BA.) one of the weakest performers on the FTSE 100 today, with Babcock International PLC (LSE:BAB) also in the red, but almost back to flat.

Rheinmetall is the weakest performer on Germany's DAX this morning, after gaining 171% so far this year.

"During the US session we will be watching Palantir closely. It has risen 15% in the past month as geopolitical tensions have surged. Now that the conflict in the Middle East has de-escalated, this tech darling could come under some downward pressure, as it acts like a defense stock, although it has tech qualities," says Brooks.

9.29am: Bunzl analysis

Bunzl shares are up 1.6% -- just above midway in the FTSE 100 list of risers and fallers this morning -- on the back of this morning's trading update, having recently been trading at their lowest since early 2021 following a profit warning in April.

Analyst Jacob Armstrong at Stifel says he remains "watchful of underlying trading trends, which remain subdued. The trading update does not give any details on the progress in North America and we remain watchful on the execution improvements."

At Shore Capital, Robin Speakman notes that "cash generation continues with asset allocation focusing on keeping debt at the lower end of the 2.0-2.5x range.

"Bunzl has only completed two small acquisitions year to date, with a third in Brazil slated for later this year.

"We expect activity to continue at a low level for now, asset allocation focusing upon debt reduction, organic investment and dividends. So, no change to underlying forecasts (noting FX weights) at this juncture."

8.56am: European shares rally hard, FTSE held back by oil giants 

While there was a bit of uncertainty about the ceasefire over the Asian session that the deal was watertight, we have sees a "relief reflex" unfold since both Israel and Iran have confirmed the news, says Saxo market analyst Neil Wilson.

As well as the sharp reaction was in crude oil markets, with Brent shedding another 5% this morning to add to yesterday’s 7% decline, this has been "a brutal move that has done a lot of technical damage which will likely take some time to recover from", says Wilson. 

"The Iranian regime can sell the ceasefire coming as a result of its attack on the US, which indicates a willingness by the regime to preserve its power at the expense of any wider regional goals. I think the regime has been caught napping and is chastened by this whole experience." 

Trading in London and Europe is a reversal of some of the price moves seen in the past week, with airlines and other travel shares up and oil and gold lower.

On the FTSE 100, IAG and easyjet are both up more than 6%, Intercontinental Hotels Group PLC (LSE:IHG) is up 2.6%, while on the FTSE 250, cruise operator Carnival PLC (LSE:CCL), which reports later today, has jumped 5%, and Wizz Air Holdings PLC (AIM:WIZZ) is up 4%.

Retailers Ocado, JD Sports, media groups Future and Informa, along with miners like Anglo American and banks including Barclays and Standard Chartered are all further down the leaderboard.

Oil and defence stocks are holding back the FTSE compared to its continental blue-chip counterparts, with Germany's DAX rising 1.75% and France's CAC up 1.3%. 

8.34am: Gold price drops to 2-week low

The price of gold has dropped 1.2% this morning to $3,327, down around 2% over the past week back to levels seen earlier this month. 

Richard Hunter, head of markets at Interactive Investor, says: "The pronouncement of a ceasefire between Israel and Iran and the lack of meaningful response from the latter to the US strikes over the weekend have lifted investor spirits and removed a plank of uncertainty.

"The news gives fresh impetus to a risk-on approach, which has lifted shares across most developed markets, while also weighing on the gold price as investors switched their attention elsewhere."

8.13am: FTSE jumps at the open

The FTSE 100 leapt almost 70 points higher in initial trades, led by gains for airline companies International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LSE:IAG) and easyJet PLC (LSE:EZJ), up 6.7% and 6% respectively.  

This gain has been cut to 40 points, as oil giants BP PLC (LSE:BP.) and Shell PLC (LSE:SHEL, NYSE:SHEL) have dropped 6.3% and 4.3%. 

Gold and precious metals miners Endeavour and Fresnillo, defence groups BAE Systems and Babcock are also down. 

8am: Saga reports smooth sailing

Saga PLC (LSE:SAGA) has reported smooth sailing at the start of 2025, with trading "on track" with expectations in the first four months of its financial year, and a new partnership also lined up with NatWest Group PLC (LSE:NWG).

The group’s ocean and river cruise divisions have performed strongly, with boats 95% and 93% full respectively, both ahead of the same period last year.

Holiday bookings were also up, with revenue 14% higher and passenger numbers 13% ahead of last year’s levels.

The insurance underwriting arm traded as expected, with the planned sale to Ageas on track for completion by 31 July 2025, which will see the insurance broking business tied into 20-year partnership from the fourth quarter.

7.48am: Bunzl reassures

Having warned on profits two months ago, ​​​​​ Bunzl PLC (LSE:BNZL) has provided investors with a more reassuring update, saying that trading had been in line with expectations in recent weeks. 

The FTSE 100-listed distributor said underlying revenue was likely to be "broadly flat" in the first six months of 2025 compared to last year, with total group revenue up around 4% at constant exchange rates, while operating profit margin was around 7%, which matches the levels indicated at the April profit warning. 

For the full year, Bunzl still expects "moderate revenue growth", driven by acquisitions already announced and broadly flat underlying revenue, with operating margins seen creeping up to almost 8%, compared to 8.3% last year.

"Alongside a macroeconomic backdrop that remains uncertain, the group is trading in-line with our expectations," says chief executive Frank van Zanten.

7.28am: Confirmation of ceasefire

Confirmation of the ceasefire has come from Israel's PM Benjamin Netanyahu, with US media reporting that the deal had been brokered by Trump in direct conversation with Netanyahu.

However, Iran’s foreign minister posted in the early hours that "there is NO ‘agreement’ on any ceasefire or cessation of military operations. However, provided that the Israeli regime stops its illegal aggression against the Iranian people no later than 4 am Tehran time, we have no intention to continue our response afterwards."

Asian markets are upbeat as a result this morning, with the Hang Seng up 2% in Hong Kong, while the Nikkei has risen over 1% in Tokyo.  

Deutsche Bank's Jim Reid said prior to the developments in the Middle East, the main new story of yesterday had been rising speculation of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve following comments from Michelle Bowman, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, that inflation "appears to be on a sustained path toward 2%" and that she’d support a rate cut as soon as the next meeting in late July.

"With oil prices falling and markets pricing in more rate cuts, this proved good news for US Treasuries," says Reid, with yields down across the board to their lowest levels since May 7, before US and China announced a pause in the retaliatory tariffs.

"Rising rate cut expectations and easing geopolitical risks also drove a big turn around for the dollar, which had climbed by as much as three-quarters of a percent by European lunchtime, but ended the day -0.29% lower."

7.15am: FTSE 100 bounce back expected as Trump says ceasefire agreed

The FTSE 100 is likely to bounce back with aplomb on Tuesday, while oil prices plunge the opposite way after President Donald Trump revealed that a ceasefire between Israel and Iran had been agreed. 

London's blue-chip index has been called 50 points higher on the futures market, having dropped 17 points the day before and almost 130 since fighting in the Middle East escalated 12 days earlier.

Shortly after the closing bell in European markets, Iran launched missiles at a US air base in Qatar, though it turned out that the attack was well telegraphed and Qatar had been given notice to allow air traffic to be suspended.

US stocks rallied, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both finishing over 0.9% to the good, with the Dow Jones just below that. 

There were no casualties on the US base, with President Trump thanking Iran for "giving us early notice" of the strikes.

At just after 11pm London time, Trump posted: "CONGRATULATIONS TO EVERYONE! It has been fully agreed by and between Israel and Iran that there will be a Complete and Total CEASEFIRE (in approximately 6 hours from now, when Israel and Iran have wound down and completed their in progress, final missions!), for 12 hours, at which point the War will be considered, ENDED!

"Officially, Iran will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 12th Hour, Israel will start the CEASEFIRE and, upon the 24th Hour, an Official END to THE 12 DAY WAR will be saluted by the World."

Brent crude, which had topped $80 a barrel on Sunday, has now plunged to $68.5. 

5.30am: What to watch on Tuesday 24 June

The FTSE 100 reporter of the day is Bunzl PLC (LSE:BNZL), which was recently hit by a downgrade over competition fears.

Analysts at RBC Capital worry that the distributor’s profit warning in April might not be an isolated incident, more a reflection of the new rivalries in the market, with concerns about the challenging competitive environment and uncertainty in the goods not for resale (GNFR) sector, as well as the loss of a key grocery customer due to price competition.

Elsewhere, Carnival PLC (LSE:CCL, NYSE:CCL) will report on its second quarter, having cruised to a better-than-expected start to the year and raised its full-year profit guidance back in March.

The cruise operator said it expected net income to be up 30% compared to 2024, better than its December guidance by $185 million.

Geopolitical concerns have hit travel stocks in the past week and a half, however, which may affect any update on the outlook.  

Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey and several fellow members of the monetary policy committee are also due to speak, which could bring some clues about the central bank's interest policy direction. 

Bailey will deliver opening remarks at a conference remembering Britain’s return to the gold standard in 1925, with chief economist Huw Pill also speaking later. Bailey is also giving evidence to the Lords Economic Affairs Committee.

At separate events, Megan Greene is giving a speech on policy implications of differences in central bank balance sheet management, Dave Ramsden is speaking at a monetary policy forum and Sarah Breeden is having a 'fireside chat' elsewhere.

Announcements expected

Trading update: Bunzl, Carnival, Inchcape, SThree

Interims: LBG Media

Finals: Foresight Environmental Infrastructure, Telecom Plus, TPXImpact Holdings

Economic announcements: IFO Business Climate (GER), Consumer Confidence (US)